Two preview analysis features from today:
By Reuters' Patrick Worsnip (also here)...
The stakes are high for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon when he tours Sudan, Chad, and Libya next week [in order] to try to smooth the way for a peacekeeping force [that] he hopes will end the 4-year-old conflict in Darfur.
Ban has set ambitious goals for his six-day trip, saying [that] he wants to lay the foundations of a lasting peace in the western Sudanese region, where an estimated 200,000 people have died and 2.5 million [have] been driven from their homes.
The conflict began when mostly non-Arab rebels took up arms in Darfur, accusing Khartoum of neglecting the region, and the government mobilized mostly Arab militias to quell the revolt. Aid agencies say [that] one of the world's worst crises has resulted.
Sudan agreed in July to the dispatch of a 26,000-strong joint U.N.-African Union force of troops and police to replace 7,000 existing AU peacekeepers who have been unable to cope. It is not expected to deploy before the new year.
But Western diplomats on the U.N. Security Council remain cautious, saying [that] Sudan has made agreements before with the world body, only to cause problems later over the details of their implementation.
Ban, who arrives in Sudan on Monday, has acknowledged that Khartoum has the power to make the peace plan fail. It "cannot succeed without the cooperation of the government of Sudan," he told a news conference on Tuesday, adding that he would press President Omar Hassan al-Bashir for that support.
Despite a peace conference planned for October, a surge in violence in Darfur has claimed hundreds of lives in the past month, with rebels accusing the government of a daily bombing campaign. The armed forces have declined comment.
Khartoum also has ordered out European Union and Canadian envoys for what it said was interference in its affairs, as well as the country director of the U.S.-based CARE aid organization.
TOP PRIORITY
Ban's visit to Darfur will include a stop at a refugee camp. He also will travel to south Sudan, which has been semi-autonomous since a 2005 peace agreement ended 20 years of north-south fighting.
Problems have loomed in the south, too, with the northern army missing a July 9 deadline to move its troops out of vital southern oil areas.
Diplomats say [that] Ban has made settling the Darfur conflict the top international priority of his eight months in office so far, and [that] the Africa trip commits his prestige to that task.
The diplomats say [that] Sudan is now a critical test case for the United Nations itself. "If Darfur slips back into chaos, and the north-south agreement falls apart, the U.N. as a whole will slip back," a senior Western envoy said this week.
The leaders of Britain and France revived the threat of sanctions, in a joint newspaper editorial [sic] on Friday, if Khartoum does not comply. But many Security Council members oppose sanctions, as long as a peace process appears to be under way.
Ban also will go to Chad, which neighbors Darfur and hosts tens of thousands of refugees from there, [in order] to help put in place what he sees as the second prong of his strategy -- deployment of a peace force there to tackle the spillover from Sudan.
Because Chadian President Idriss Deby objected to U.N. forces, European Union troops will provide the military muscle for that mission for the first year, under plans expected to be approved in Brussels in mid-September. But a question mark remains over what happens after that.
The U.N. chief winds up his tour with a 24-hour stopover in Libya, whose leader, Muammar Gaddafi, has hosted talks between Darfur's fractious rebel movements, which currently number about a dozen.
By Haider Rizvi, for IPS...
Hopes for restoration of peace in the Sudanese region of Darfur appear to remain as distant as ever, although international efforts to resolve the four-year-long bloody conflict have recently intensified, and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is now getting personally involved.
But as Ban prepares to embark on his first-ever trip to Sudan next week, from Sep. 3 [to] 6, the official statements coming from Khartoum indicate that the mood there remains defiant, and [that] there are few indications of enthusiasm to cooperate with the international community.
On Tuesday, noting that violence in the Darfur region was on the rise, Ban said [that] he was "deeply concerned" that, early this month [August], several hundred people had been killed in violent incidents, including an attack on a police station and air strikes on villages in south Darfur.
In response, the regime quickly sent a rebuke to Ban, saying that his statement was based on "fabricated news stories." The Sudanese government categorically denied reports about continued military operations in Darfur.
"These accusations are false and founded on made-up information from organisations and agencies with a political agenda," foreign ministry spokesman Ali al-Sadek told reporters. "The government hasn't had any military activities recently, and the Sudanese army has no activities in Darfur."
Initially, the Sudanese government refused to accept the U.N. Security Council decision to deploy additional peacekeepers in the troubled region, but under international pressure, eventually agreed to a 26,000-strong United Nations-African Union hybrid force in Darfur, most of which will be shaped by troops drawn from African nations.
A spokesman for Ban reiterated the U.N. position that violence was escalating and [that] military operations were still going on in Darfur.
"These are established facts," said Yves Sorokobi. "We stand by our information."
Last week, the London-based human rights group Amnesty International released new photographs illustrating the Sudanese government's continued deployment of military equipment in Darfur, despite the U.N. arms embargo and peace agreements.
"An embargo is only effective if it there are repercussions for defiance," said Larry Cox, Amnesty International USA's executive director. "The Security Council must strongly enforce this embargo immediately.
The photographs, sent to Amnesty International and the International Peace Information Service in Antwerp by eyewitnesses in Darfur, reinforce evidence provided in Amnesty's May 2007 report "Sudan: Arms continuing to fuel serious human rights violations in Darfur."
In Darfur, more than 200,000 people have been killed [and] at least two million others [have been] displaced since 2003, when the armed conflict erupted between rebel groups from indigenous African tribes and Khartoum-backed Janjaweed militias.
Reports from the region suggest that in addition to civilians, many aid workers remain vulnerable to violent attacks by militias, which have continued since last September, when the Security Council first voted to send 20,000 U.N. troops to the region.
On [Tuesday], Ban said [that] he planned his trip to Sudan because he wanted to "see for myself the very difficult conditions" under which the proposed hybrid U.N.-African peacekeeping force will operate in Darfur.
He said [that] the objective of his trip was "to underscore the peace agreement, and to make progress in several areas related to Darfur -- [the] hybrid force, the political process, humanitarian access, and development of water sources."
Amid renewed calls for rapid deployment of troops, the civil-society groups involved in humanitarian and peace efforts in Darfur welcomed Ban's decision to visit Sudan, although many of them seem unsure if the talks with the Omar al-Bashir government would produce positive results.
"It's critical to put pressure on the government," Marie Clark Brill of Africa Action, a Washington-based political-pressure group that lobbies with the U.S. Congress on issues related to development in Africa, told IPS. "It's now time to put forward financial and logistical resources in place."
Like many other groups, Africa Action is demanding immediate deployment of troops in Darfur. "The peacekeeping operation is long overdue," she said, amid doubts about Sudan's promises to cooperate with the world community.
Scott Paul of Citizens for Global Solutions, another independent but influential policy think tank in Washington [sic], offered similar views on Ban's trip to Khartoum.
"We all know that the agreements reached thus far are as fragile as they are promising," he told IPS. "However, keeping the spotlight on Darfur is the best way to hold the government of Sudan to the promises that it has made."
In the United States, many groups involved in peace and humanitarian efforts in Darfur believe that, aside from collective efforts at the U.N. level, China alone can play a critical in ending the carnage in Darfur, but the giant Asian nation has so far failed to do enough.
China is thought to purchase as much as 70 percent of Sudan's oil, and has at least 3 billion dollars invested in the Sudanese energy sector. It has exported at least 24 million dollars worth of arms and ammunition to Sudan, as well as nearly 57 million dollars in parts and aircraft equipment.
This year and before, time and again, the United States tried to threaten Sudan with economic sanctions, but both China and Russia opposed such measures at the U.N. Security Council, where both countries enjoy veto powers.
However, earlier this month, China and Russia went along with the United States and other countries' proposal to send a 26,000-strong U.N. force to Darfur.
Many observers believe [that] China's acquiescence was due, at least in part, to the activist pressure brought to bear on the nation as it attempts to purify its image ahead of next year's Olympic Games.
U.N. officials say [that] the troop deployment could still take several months to implement. Meanwhile, as Darfurians await the troops' arrival, vast numbers of villagers -- as well as humanitarian-aid workers -- are likely to face further armed attacks by militias.
Social change for the next generation
Young girl with infant child at refugee camp in Darfur. Photo by Dan Scandling, Office of U.S. Representative Frank Wolf