UN warns of massive build-up of weapons, intensification of violence, including air attacks, groups re-arming and violence spreading beyond Darfur

A report in the Guardian yesterday quotes Charles Gurdon, an analyst with a British consultancy firm, as saying Darfur was more important to the Sudanese government than the south, because its population is Muslim, like most of the north, and because the bulk of the army comes from there.

The report also quotes him as saying the southern Sudan peace deal was a result both of Western pressure and Sudan's desire to end its pariah status in the international community. "If Libya and Iraq and others can come off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, Sudan also has to try," he said. "It is a calculated position - this way they can have more time to sort out western Sudan."
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Note, Khartoum has so much breathing space now, it seems unreal. No wonder Sudan's President is so excited, acting so magnanimously and offering to now "consider" power sharing with Darfur. Khartoum must think they did right all these years. They stole power through a gun barrel and now the peace deal legitimises them. They don't even have to completely withdraw their troops from southern Sudan for another 2.5 years.

Khartoum gives the impression of welcoming peace but what they are really welcoming is the heat being taken off them. It seems as though Darfur is back to square one. The past 22 months of hell -- costing around 400,000 lives and displacing millions of people -- and two U.N. Security Council resolutions threatening possible sanctions along with a bill signed by President Bush last month -- it's like none of it ever happened.

Yesterday, ABC/Reuters, via Australian news online, reported that the Nigerian commander of AU forces in Darfur, Festus Okonkwo, said violence in western Sudan had been muted since the end of the Abuja talks but the total of cease-fire violations by both sides was approaching 100.

Early next week, the UN Security Council meets to discuss Kofi Annan's latest report warning that swift action must be taken over the security situation in Darfur or intense violence could break out. In the report, Mr Annan said groups were re-arming and violence was spreading beyond the region -- both the government and rebels had repeatedly violated the ceasefire agreement, and the government had started a massive build-up of forces and logistics -- and the massive build-up of weapons and intensification of violence, including air attacks, suggested the security situation in Darfur was deteriorating.
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How many times have we heard that before? It feels like a return to last year. Yesterday, BBC news online published its old Janjaweed photo [see below, even the caption seems the same] from several months ago.

Mr Annan says Khartoum is again using militia in its operations [Photo/caption via BBC]